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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  January 19, 2014 10:00pm-11:01pm EST

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we will take a look at the reports that softbank is in direct talks for another major acquisition in the u.s.. are valued atks the highest are in the financial crisis and dividends are expected to follow. and more surprises in the world of sports. new coming up from the aussie open in the nfl playoffs. that and much more from this " asia edge" of the week. >> i have a look at the markets today as investors interpret the gdp numbers out of china, exceeding expectations last year. home sales doing well. also $1 trillion in property transactions in china. remarkable numbers. and the growth numbers also pleasing the eye. mixed performance here as we look across the asia-pacific this monday morning. -- theg seng added the the -- the hang
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is. and the aussie markets as well. we saw the aussie dollar falling earlier. the asx giving up some of its earlier declines. resource shares active today. crude has been trading sideways. this is what we see so far. jakarta is now at half of the trading day. it is a quarter one percent higher insole -- in seoul. tochina's economic growth slow down in the fourth quarter. let's get more from stephen engle who is in beijing. steve, what have we got here? economic growth, as you said, slowing in the fourth quarter in china to 7.7% from 7.8%. the median testament from economists was for 7.6%.
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so a deep forecast, albeit by disabled -- albeit by just a little bit. it is still a year-over-year figure. authorities are managing down growth expectations though, trying to whittle down the risks in the financial system due in part to over leverage. there has been a bit of a cash crunch in this economy as lending has been tightened. already nine provinces have set lower gdp targets for this year from last year's targets, indicating their margin orders have been ratcheted down for less emphasis on gdp growth. gdp growth for the full year 2013 rose in line with the of 7.7% as well. but it is the forward-looking numbers that we really want to look at. the median estimate of economists for 2014 full-year growth is for 7.4%. 7.4%means from 7.7% to
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will see some weakening, continued weakening. that will be the slowest pace of annual growth since 1990. the other december data suggesting that the growth momentum is definitely waning. industrial production in december rising 9.7% below the median forecast and also fixed assets, urban investment also below estimates and 19.6%. cumulative. that is a 12-month or year. retail sales were in line with the median estimate of 13.6%. there were plenty of risks in this economy. take for example new home prices which soared last month. decemberre than 15% in , led by wenzhou and shenzhen. many of these big cities him a gains year-ies with over-year. local property curbs are failing to deter buyers. as we have this slowing gdp growth combined with any possible further tightening in a
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property market, that could pose some for the risks in the chinese economy. in 69 outs increased of 70 cities tracked by the city even the many cities have raise their minimum down payment as the government tries to keep the lid on potential property bubbles. >> thank you very much for that. have those numbers really been welcome to the market? we are now seeing property shares of chinese developers and hong kong-based developers declining today. these are stocks listed here in hong kong. sees landor. as for the others, the hong kong-based developers henderson land, new world, marginal move to the downside.
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earlier, some of these stocks have been moving higher. data, wethe chinese are tracking the impact of commodity prices. the indication is that demand will stay strong in china. easy base metals and precious metals rising. copper prices are higher. gold is now trading at 1256 dollars an ounce. plan him it's up 3/10 of one percent. resource plays, we watched him closely, given the inter-linkage between australia and those resource talks as well as the chinese market. bhp billiton, hawthorne and sidney. and the aussie dollar for a final check is at $.88, 88 u.s. cents. we are watching that closely in the wake of these numbers. >> that is a look at what is going on marketwise. >> and the other main stories we're following, it made -- a son in a surprise. -- a sunday night surprise.
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analysts expected a profit at deutsche bank. a crashrs of the asian in san francisco are suing knowing -- suing boeing. airplanes airspeed warning system was inadequate and the pilots were poorly trained. there were 307 people on board. three teenage girls from china were killed. and close to relaunching plans for a is cap airline in japan after the partnership unraveled last summer. the carrier has wound up local partners to start operating in 2015. air asia says the operation will airport fors new cost reasons. asia is also preparing a new indian service in march. nintendo shares plummeted at the open after forecasting a surprise loss. is japanese game maker
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losing the console battle to the new playstation and xbox. leadingson has been a is going wrong. >> the we -- the wii. the wii u is now looking at overselling. so they have cut their forecast for the console and the wii games. this time, they forecast a surprise loss of ¥25 billion. the dramatic change in direction. they cut their forecast on wii u consuls by 70%. .hey cut their we gain sales shipments are way lower than xbox or playstation. got the games. not so much the hardware. >> it's like the ship has been sailing and passing them by four nintendo. sales are just not there.
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they have to come up with a new strategy. what is the alternative? >> i believe they have a strategy conference coming up on the 30th. they have a strong strengthen gains that -- they have a strong strength in games. they have these games coming out this year. a in at 2, docket called, super smash brothers, and mario kart eight. they will look at pushing those games. they don't want to lose control of the hardware just yet. if it's not working, then stick with the games. ago when they had the game consuls that could move in the family's love that and it seems to be moving its way little bit. >> and they go the hard gamer or the family? >> that is the question. investors are waiting for the answer. all right, john dawson, thanks.
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you can get more on that and the rest of the day's news at bloomberg.com. you will find in-depth reports and market data and you can watch some of the interviews you may have missed on bloomberg today. >> let's get you back up to speed with what is going on market wise to -- marketwise. the wall were lower in street section friday. today is a holiday so we won't get any vindication later. the lackluster earnings in the u.s. impact in the trade there. we did see a decline in the s&p 500. futures are little changed by the way for wall street. that's look broadly at the index in asia. now.sci asia-pacific right it is curious. it is telling actually. it tells you a lot about today's market. basic materials the only stock as an industry group that are advancing on the regional benchmark. all the others are declining. that shows you with the gdp numbers out of china that the
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resource shares are doing well. we will continue to stay strong. as we dig down into that group, basic resources doing well over chemicals and among those stocks the minors and industrial metals. , if youncides perfectly will, with the chinese story. 14 up to eight lower. this is what we have across the region. aluminum is higher. cory is a -- cory is -- korea zinc. let's just take you through the list here. a lot of companies listed in japan but china still makes this list. withe will round it out jiangxi copper, the largest copper producer in the world. come in this edition
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of "asia edge," including what is in store for property in hong kong. we have an interview with hai san development.
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>> we've been focusing on china's growth with our guests all morning. grew 7.7%rter gdp from the previous year, yahweh says the slowdown is unavoidable. >> if you look at industry production come especially the success in investment, the slowdown was more than expected. with the end of the year, the growth momentum is already softening. we think there will be more growth deceleration in 2014. china is aiming to get the consumer more involved.
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rate fornd of growth china in the next two years of the last two years is just not sustainable. we have seen china pay the price for it. inflation in one stage was an issue. i think the new chinese leadership wants to ensure that the negative impact of heady growth is not there. >> despite forecasts of a slowdown, mizuho securities says is not as rate important as the quality of expansion. >> i think the growth slowdown is not a concern. as long as the quality of growth has improved. 7.5% is the new government and foror last year this year also. i think if it is already at shouldt means that they that target and the growth rate is the pretty decent.
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even though it is the lowest in 20 were years. but that is not the issue. the issue is the growth model. is it sustainable, more efficient, more high-quality? >> we had a conversation about quality versus quantity. you said they are getting the quantity of growth in china. what about the other aspect? >> i think all it is coming through. >> and breathing the air. >> pollution measures are clearly the renewable energy thing. but this rear is really about reform versus -- but this year is really about reform versus gdp. the key priority is the whole reform process, which won't happen overnight. >> but we are talking about what aspects in particular? >> in terms of the reforms? >> what do you like? what should be the priority in your views? >> in terms of the overall measures that have been spoken
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is the president is responsible for the reforms committee. that is really telling. renewable energy names are some fund managersour are looking at that sector. some of these cement, steel, paper names give you could see the governor clement, close the names that are doing well with the company, therefore big names gain more march -- more market share. of course,that, but when you look at what is going on there, normally these people are way interested in staples, internet stocks and health care. done to death effectively to >> is interesting. -- effectively. >> is interesting. you are absolutely right. when we look at msci china, everybody else says that it is cheap.
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but it is cheap. but when you strip out the soa and sanctioned enterprises, it jumps to the high teens. so those new china names are expensive. will there be any upside surprises here? thehe other aspect is middle class and you have to buy to that, don't you? >> yes. in the past, china has been buying a lot of green associated goods. and they don't like to think about their make up. as the middle class matures, you see a gravitation towards life insurance names. people are thinking about growing old, etc. >> and we have the corruption of as well. is that really taking its toll on the luxury seen? >> again, there are two sides to the coin. >> there always are. >> with china, several people complain about the economy and
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the government. so this is about the sustainable growth of the country itself. >> what surprised you in terms of, as we get a maturing population as you put it here, a population that is slowly try to move up the value chain? >> the outbound -- the outbound number of chinese is staggering. where they're going to start traveling, it's not just hong kong and macau aymara. it is europe and the u.s. night >> we're seeing it already. -- and the u.s. >> we are seeing it already. >> yes. everyone -- there is no real news driving the market. >> the retail number was interesting today as well because that showed some solid growth. in electricity production as well. like-e nations, it is not like, but they could be doing better gdp as was suggested. bearshink there are more
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in china rather than bowls. but it is really just -- rather than bulls. just apples to apples. everybody thought eight or nine years ago the they would be there for the quick buck. >> and a new government was formed. i think about resetting expectations. also, you fall over and you get a nasty word. putting a bandage on it won't solve the problem. it will probably get more infected. so cleaning it out and redressing it is good. i believe they will be very successful. >> i've never heard that analogy before. [laughter] thank you very much. up next, the casino ratings and macau.
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a stock beloved by analysts. asia edge returns in a couple of minutes.
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>> let's look at some of the events for the week ahead. a state on the world economy. in october, imf predicted that the economy would pick up. christine lagarde indicated that
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an upgrade is possible. the political stand up in bangkok is looking at its second straight rate. they are expecting policymakers to lower the cost. hind i is expected to be up -- hyundai is expected to be up. and japan's parliament as of and for the first time. the topic of for discussion is legalizing casinos. they are inches it -- they are interested is the market opens up. >> the boom in macau has sent investors pouring into the sector. but among the analysts, there's one casino getting the most love. david ingles joins us now from 's top pick. >> most love, most bullish, we could be here all day. [laughter]
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even if i think you go through other exchanges, it's likely you will not see a stock as high as this one. we aren't using the ones listed in the u.s. that is the main thing for michael crown. four mel coker -- for melco crown. 21 say continue to buy the stock. ,he one thing hong kong today 63883 hk's the to do for that one. look at that. 350%. i think we were 25 when it listed two years back. we are now close to about a hundred. that said, if you look at melco china,sans china, wynn
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the difference between these ones listed in hong kong are really not as big, except for sjs holdings --f of sjs holdings. again, it is really more a call on the sector. overwhelmingly bullish. >> and important, as you noted, listedhe adr, the u.s. side of melco. biggest exposure that's a people are worried about a little bit. what is the growth dan -- growth plan for melco. it's expensive and wire analysts still bullish on this? >> it is writing on -- it is riding on two growth seems.
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it is no longer growing as fast as previous years. i think that is where the studio city project comes in because they are actually building that across or add one of these stations, these light railway stations that is coming into macau. second, the city of dreams in manila expanding. diversifying away from the and taking inming macau. i guess they are diversifying a way somehow. >> thanks. >> after the break, we will be looking at the reopening in tokyo.
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>> a surprise loss for nintendo and shares are tumbling in japan. time for another takeover in the u.s. push for t-mobile. and banking on australia. why relationship lenders are so high. let's get to the latest markets now with zeb eckert. >> this is what we see across the asia-pacific right now. more markets heading into positive territory after the chinese gdp numbers generally exceeded estimates today. you see south korea advancing. taiwan, the philippines, jakarta and bangkok now online.
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index gaining 7%. let's take a quick check at the time markets. -- at the thai markets. these are consistently the biggest movers and that's because they're the most heavily weighted stocks and bangkok. we know the chinese gdp numbers for last year. the housing data. let's check in on the asian market of shanghai. .4%.arket is lower by can you are seeing some of the sports stocks. materialnerally seeing shares doing well today. that is because of exposure to china. those resource talks expectation that china will continue to power forward. in the sydney market, it is the minors that are all advancing.
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silver lake, resolute mushing -- resolute mining, and evolution mining up today. >> what is moving today in tokyo? >> we have seen the nikkei 225 moving lower. let's take a look at the key movers. the to be she motors, sunni financial among -- sony mitsumi electric. the bright side, we have its reengineering and shivering and kawasaki keane sent. we will watch the session closely as they return from tokyo, japan. >> breaking news in new zealand to share with you can a powerful earthquake has hit the north island. the usgs rated it at 6.3. it hit about one -- a hundred kilometers from the capital wellington. the tremor sent the kiwi dollar
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lower as much as three percent. there are no reports of injuries or damage of us far. falling in a declining market the voracious appetite for deals in how that appetite seems not to be sated. they are said to be in direct talks with deutsche bank. whatever got so far on this? what do we know from these people? >> very important that you mention that. all of these details are going to people familiar with the information. let's set the stage and establish to the key players are. we have softbank who owns sprint. they bought it last summer. then you have deutsche telekom which owns a 67% stake in t- mobile. but should telekom wants an all cash offer for t-mobile. be in a is said to
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process to secure the cash. they are in conversation with three investment banks, goldman sachs, mizuho, as well as golden . sprint would take on any debt relating to this deal. why are they doing this? one of the maze and reasons that's one of the main reasons they are doing that now -- >> they are at michaelmas. they need to be one of the big boys to take on the big boys. accept the -- they are at critical mass. they need to be one of the big boys to take on the big boys. >> absolutely. new subscribers came in in 2013. they are doing well in getting traction. there are resolve issues. the first one being what is the actual offer going to look like? deutsche telekom wants cash. everyone wants cash. but will they get that? the integration is very important, specifically when it comes to customer service, backing operations, getting subscribers going, campaigns, everything.
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even little things i getting the local rights. deal structure is another one. thet up breakup fee because -- because some of these deals do not go the way they want them to go. the often have a break of fee when the deal starts going south. >> what could cause a breakup fee? what are the hiccups? where are the road bumps? not liking each other or agreeing on the deal structure, the u.s. regulators could provide some serious bugs in the road. s.e.c. are the people in charge of the communications. they will want to see more competitors rather than less competitors. there is an anti-monopoly on the toll of this. doinguld they consider this when they would never want to go and be part of something that would reduce the number of national operators? interestingly enough, sources say that there is a company called dish network, the second-
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largest satellite operator in the u.s. and they could be the main mechanism for why this deal would go through. --'s --t agrees to host wireless, then that would allow them to enter the mobile phone business. so you are evening out the playing field like him cities mobile operators. are evening out the playing field for most of these mobile operators. >> the highest levels we have crisis,ce the financial even bigger dividends get paul allen is in sydney. what is behind this recovery at the moment at least? quite simply put, it is cheap money, low-interest. the reserve bank of australia has cut the cash rate to its record low 2.5%. the big four banks have been
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generously passing it all -- passing it on. 6% is the lowest level since 2009 and morgan sign-ups are up 25%to which is fueling -- which is fueling a magnificently buoyant housing market here in australia. since the aba began his cut cycle,-- it's rating cut the dividend yield has gone up with it, about five percent -- about 5.4%. that is expected to rise 5.5% over the coming year. lateou may be a bit because the prices for these for banking stocks are very expensive indeed. here's all well and good if you on these banking stocks for a while. but is this all sustainable? >> yeah, that is the big question. how much longer can it last?
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you don't buy them because they are a bargain. view by them because of the dividend yields. the bank of australia just popped -- you buy them because of the dividend yields. the bank of australia just popped up. 30's.hers are in the low commonwealth bank traded at 2.7 times book and the other three at about twice book value. for aombined an account quarter of the share market and combined assets 50% larger than the entire australian economy. so how much i will they go? that is an open question, really, isn't it? it is something that the government thinks about, too. they are running an inquiry later this year. they are looking at running the system and how australia achieves sustainable growth. as for how much higher these banking stocks can go, the consensus is that they are
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already very, very expensive. >> thank you for that. that is paul allen looking at the banks. other storiesme making headlines around the world. at least 20 people have been hurt at two explosions at a retina scan in bangkok. wereials say that they caused by fragmentation grenades but it is not known who threw them. protesters accuse government accuseers who in turn them of staging the attacks. italy's controversial oh berlusconi is making a comeback. he did remain later of forca italia. he has now struck a deal with the political party to make a change. simplify the system.
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and they comment-chasing spacecraft is getting ready to wake up after hibernating for 10 years. aiming to land on a remote comet , it has traveled so far from the sun that it was powered down to save energy. later today, scientists hope to hear from it for the first time in 957 days. coming up next, three currencies that citi says to avoid -- three currencies that citi says to avoid.
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>> welcome back. dawson,me are john david inglis. you know those china numbers came through. it was to be expected.
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it matched expectations. but what was one thing in the data set that haps did not meet expectations or was a little bit of a note for you? >> the main point of the china numbers is that it shows that the chinese economy is slowing in terms of the rate of its growth. but there really isn't anything too dramatic going on. when we tied to investors, they are sensing a large amount of bearishnesst of from foreign investors. every time we are pushing the bullish chinese story, we have been bullish over the last week isso, what we are seeing almost the latest "financial times" story being quoted back to us. have you seen this? >> have you seen the shadow banking? are you worried about the icbc not willing to bailout the first
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default coming up later this month? >> the thing is that a lot of the stories have been known for quite some time. the fact that there are these problems within the chinese financial system has been known. the question really is what will be the trigger to unleash all of these things if at all it is? in some ways, it is going to be related to money markets, which is why investors are so nervous. and also related to gdp growth. but at the moment, the numbers we are running don't communicate that even this level of money market stress is actually impact on the gdp growth. >> how long can this continue? we should not really expect 7.5 are sent in three years time. >> no. as the economy develops and the gdp growth rate will slow down, i think it is very much a matter of policy. partly as aening
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result of choice. in some ways, that is a good thing. if it goes too slowly, it just reverts back to the old model that they had. there is a lot of spare capacity --ting within the old stata the old status. >> you are the contrarian view on china. >> donald rumsfeld. [laughter] >> do you think you have the contrarian view on the market? >> definitely. >> how much of a contrarian? -- onee are some things of which is that the positioning appears to be relatively light. but we're still doing some work on that. there is some pushback on how life the positioning actually is. sentiment is very bearish.
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cheap,uations are very but that can remain for some time. you could have made that argument 12 months ago as well and they continue to get very cheap. i think what we've been looking for is some action from the pboc in terms of try to get these money market rates down and trying to normalize this. so if you can get normalization of money market rates -- money below 4%,wth, rates what you get is a very significant rally that forms and things like the banks and the properties, which are very under owned. at the moment, one of the concerns that you have in china is how concentrated the positions are. everybody's position either in the internet place or the lg place -- >> when people come in and they tout the same industry groups day in and day out. you think that it is a very crowded trade. it is refreshing to have our
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guest earlier. she picked three different industry groups the whole time. sorry i was interrupting. [laughter] is thestruck me as well headline numbers. are 5are 19 -- there million more people living in chinese cities and 12 million less in rural china. inhave to go back to that summer place. so how do you read into that? there are more people moving into the big cities. >> yes. what people are now focusing on the population is changing the way that it is actually spending money. so there is a lot of optimism over these internet ways -- internet plays. if you look at the way the market has been moving, everybody will be shopping on the internet. >> everybody has only bought them. >> that's my point. and if you look at the clean
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energy names against the polluters, that is very well. the sector that everybody or that the market seems to be under waiting is the state-owned enterprises and the banks. >> what about property stocks? despite all of the property curves over the last few years, 69 out of 70 cities seem to see a rise month over month, year- over-year. some may say that that is too hot of a sector and it is about to pop. but it doesn't look like it. >> no. what is noticeable is that, ever since the new administration has come in, there have been no new measures in terms of clamping down on the property sector. >> why do you suppose that is? >> i think they've got other things to look at. [laughter] many changes.so this is something which they think will happen over time. perhaps some of the ways to actually play that, given that most of the highest property rises were in shenzhen, could
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actually be in hong kong. -- how does that change things if at all? and is the liquidity there to support them or is it just one of these companies that come to the market, raise their cash, and then you never hear from them again? >> it is an interesting situation. the reality is that we don't really know exactly which way this is going to play out. there is obviously the argument that the i -- the ipo market could hang over the market. theyf the reasons why would tighten liquidity is because so much money has jeff did to these money market funds. a lot of these ipo -- so much money has drifted over to these money market funds. a lot of these ipo kissed out -- ,nd a lot of these ipo's potentially positive. >> you have property also
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finding its way into the equity markets. want to say something. this headline just came through . china's gini coefficient is the measure of social inequality, it says it is not low enough. the industry is saying that they need to do more in terms of the theution of -- in terms of evolution of incomes. chinese new year coming up. and a lot of these corruption issing peoplep off. they are unhappy in china. >> they are unhappy. taiwan is probably the place to play that. >> the year of the horse. back up the horse. >> potentially. [laughter] >> what are you talking about? [laughter] indeed. you very much
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>> coming up next, an exclusive listing. >> yes, we are serving hong kong's property mart -- property market.
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>> breaking news from new zealand. a new zealand hitting the north island at 6.3. 6.3 is what we have at the moment in terms of the magnitude. about a hundred kilometers north of wellington. train services have been halted debt of capital while the tracks are checked. -- halted at the capital while the tracks are checked. all the results are coming from the u.s. geological service. the tremor sending the kiwi dollar down as much as three
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cents -- as much as .3%. the biggest commercial landlord in causeway bay in hong kong means confidence about the future. i spoke specifically with the chairman and asked her why. >> i think the property markets, given the supply and demand, will continue to be strong. of course, we will have event flow. again, we have to look at causeway bay. the retail side will be shown. becauseon't be strong of it so. we won't stop. we have new buildings coming out. we are just about to develop a plaza and a new court in the next few years. but at the same time, we will not stop making sure every single building gets updated and enhanced on a continuous basis.
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so i think we are optimistic. -- of course, there will be bubbles. there will be different ups and downs. confident. very we continue to be resilient. >> a lot of your peers, a lot of your property developer rivals are now looking at hong kong this year and looking at perhaps a significant drop in rents and property prices because of the property curves. they see that happening in china as well. many are extending overseas. they're looking to the united states. they're looking to europe. why are you looking? >> we will always look at opportunities. however, we feel in causeway bay, we are still reasonably -- in causeway bay, at least in our portfolio, we have made sure to have a balance of not just the offerings from high-end to the
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younger new chic and, but we servicee sure that we the local community as well as the tourists. however, we don't just pursue and focus on the mainlanders. they are a very important part. but for us, we have always, always focused on our local loyal customers. for us, it is very important to have a balanceed portfolio and a balanced user portfolio as well. ont's get you up to speed some of the sports news. we had another up said. anothere, the -- we had upset. melbourne, the number three seed . >> maria sharapova. >> beaten in three sets by dominika cibulkova. byena williams was beaten
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and a veteran which -- by ana ivanovic. seattle bp san francisco 49ers 23-17 for the nfc championship. the seahawks have never won a super bowl. but there head coach pete carroll, under his two lives, they just might get a win there. they had a chance against denver. her there, the broncos beat new england 21-16. >> you did not need to read those with a degree of impartiality. >> what are you talking about? [laughter] >> a bottle of whiskey went on auction here in hong kong. there we go. a six-liter bottle mcallen. $631,000 at souther bees, becoming the most expensive single malt ever sold. is -- it's bees not only its own estimate but even the higher marks set at southern
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bees in 2010. >> that is it for us in this monday edition of "asia
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